The Future of Science, Medicine, and Society, by Linus Pauling

The Second John P. Peters Memorial Lecture, New Haven, Connecticut, 17 November 1958

The increasing rate of progress of science may be illustrated by reference to a statement made by Benjamin Franklin in a letter written 8 February 1780. Franklin mentioned the rapid progress being made by science, and said "it is impossible to image the heights to which may be carried, in a thousand years, the power of man over matter." Now, as I consider the progress that science has made during the fifty years ending today, 17 November 1958, I find that it is impossible for me to imagine the heights to which the power of man over matter might rise even during the next fifty years, to say nothing about the next 1,000 years. Most of us present today in this hall, to do honor to that sensitive, thoughtful, and courageous man Dr. John P. Peters, were alive and already old enough to think about the nature of the world twenty-five years ago, in 1933. Who is there here who can say that in 1933 he expected that the immense stores of energy locked up in the nuclei of atoms would be released at the will of man by this time? Even Lord Rutherford, who more than any other man was responsible for the development of nuclear physics, said in 1933 that he doubted that this store of energy would ever be tapped.

I believe that biology and medicine will make the most extraordinary progress during the next fifty years. An indication of what may come is given by the present concept of the structure of deoxyribosenucleic acid and the mechanism of duplication of the gene. Precise structural information about many large molecules of biological importance may soon be obtained. The understanding of the molecular basis of physiology and medicine that would result should lead to significant practical progress.

There are many kinds of hereditary anemia that are now known to result from the manufacture by the patient of hemoglobin molecules with abnormal structure. It is likely that thousands of diseases are similarly caused by abnormal protein molecules, often abnormal enzyme molecules that have lost entirely or nearly entirely their power to catalyze the chemical reaction that is needed for good health. Perhaps, as our understanding of these molecular diseases increases, we shall find a way of providing the patient with a substitute for the abnormal molecule, such as an artificial enzyme.

A great problem that is raised by the progress of science and medicine is that of the increasing deterioration of the pool of human germ plasm. Some way must be found by which the bad genes can he eliminated from this pool with a minimum amount of human suffering. Laboratory tests for recognition of heterozygotes are now being developed that make possible effective action by society in preventing deterioration of the human race.

Another problem that results from medical progress and the possibility of effective application of the feeling of compassion is that of providing modern medical care for all human beings in such a way that the onslaught of disease is not a financial catastrophe for a family. Medical diagnosis and treatment have now become so complex that the problem of their provision is no longer a problem for the individual human being or family, but rather one for society as a whole.

Finally, we come to the great question about the future of science, medicine, and society? Will there be a future? During the past thirteen years weapons have increased in their power of destruction by a factor of 20,000,000 - the standard weapon now is the 20-megaton superbomb, rather than the 1-ton TNT blockbuster of the Second World War. Thousands of these great weapons, each capable of destroying the largest city in the world, are now in existence, in the stockpiles of the three nuclear powers. There are more than enough of these weapons in the world today to destroy all of the cities of the world, probably enough to kill all or nearly all of the people in the world. It seems clear that these weapons cannot be used, in a third world war, a nuclear war. It seems clear that war and the threat of war now have to be abandoned as the instruments of national policy. And yet it is hard to see how world problems can be solved without war.

I believe that world problems should be attacked in the way that other problems are now attacked – by research; an international world peace research organization, if it could be brought into existence, might well make a contribution that would mean the difference between destruction and survival.